新經濟學與台灣戴明圈: The New Economics and A Taiwanese Deming Circle

「華人戴明學院」是戴明哲學的學習共同體 ,致力於淵博型智識系統的研究、推廣和運用。 The purpose of this blog is to advance the ideas and ideals of W. Edwards Deming.

2016年4月23日 星期六

福斯作弊醜聞在美國達成和解;VW admits to second illegal device in 85,000 Audi engines大眾近10萬輛汽油車虛報溫室氣體排量;福斯未完全吐實;大眾醜聞與德國企業文化 Volkswagen reels from US investigation into alleged cheating 柴油引擎檢驗造假抓包:shares were down 21%


觀念座標

※ 2016.04.23 經濟 ※
福斯作弊醜聞在美國達成和解
針對德國福斯柴油車環測造假的醜聞,星期四(4 月 21 日),福斯在美國法院設下的最後時限內,在舊金山和美國達成基本和解協議。基本和解內容包括,對近 58 萬受害者提出「實質賠償」(substanzielle Entschädigung),若無法在技術上改善以符合規範,福斯將購回自家所產近 50 萬輛 2 升柴油引擎汽車。目前尚不明朗的部份,是福斯集團該如何賠償美國政府。
關於「實質賠償」,根據德國媒體《世界報 die Welt》的說法,被裝上作弊裝置(defeat device)車子的車主,每位將可獲得 5000 美元的補償。根據《dpa》的消息,根基和解內容,預估福斯至少將付出 164 億歐元,這比原先預估的賠償金額多出100 億歐元——福斯在去年九月時,已準備 67 億歐元的和解金。
這個和解條件,預計將是福斯集團歷年來最大的損失。福斯集團預計在預定本週公佈 2015 年的財務報告。
為平息整個作弊醜聞,福斯可能將付出更多金額。在舊金山達成的和解內容,是針對消費者的部份,福斯汽車還因為違反美國環保規範而面臨司法刑事訴訟——這筆罰金預估也將高達數億美元。此外,這份和解內容僅針對 2 升柴油引擎,還不包括其他在幾個月前發現可能也有問題的 3 升柴油引擎,這樣的車子數目約 9 萬輛。
由於美國的法律制度在高額罰金和補償金的情況下,允許集體訴訟。但德國卻沒有相對應的制度,《萊茵郵報 Rheinische Post》轉述,北萊茵—西伐倫邦的消費者部長雷門(Johannes Remmel)希望推動修法,能夠讓像是消費者協會代表受害者們來求償。因為相較於美國,德國受害車主沒有取得實質補助。福斯集團發出的聲明稿中也寫道:「在美國達成的協議成果將不會影響到美國之外的法律訴訟結果」。
※ 2015.09.24 汽車工業 ※
福斯醜聞恐殃及其他車廠,德國製造名聲岌岌
http://on.fb.me/1TxJdP8





It seems difficult for Volkswagen to contain its troubles over the emissions scandal.
(Picture by Bloomberg)



Carmaker concedes it failed to notify US regulators of software
ON.FT.COM

大眾近10萬輛汽油車虛報溫室氣體排量1105

德國交通部長多布林德(Alexander Dobrindt)向聯邦議院表示,涉及二氧化碳排放量作假的大眾汽車也包括9.8萬輛汽油車。
(德國之聲中文網)大眾公司週二晚表示,大約80萬輛車的二氧化碳排放量與產品規格不一致,其實際耗油量因此會超過車主的​​估計。這些車大多是柴油車,但也包括“少量”汽油車
迄今為止,尾氣門僅僅涉及大眾操縱有害氣體的排放數據。二氧化碳對人體無害,但卻是最重要的溫室氣體,也是造成氣候變暖的“元兇”。在艱苦的談判後,歐盟過去幾年對二氧化碳排放值作出了更為嚴格的規定。
德國政府加大施壓
在大眾承認新問題後,德國政府加大對大眾及其新掌門人馬蒂亞斯·穆勒(Matthias Müller)施壓。德國交通部長多布林德週三在柏林表示,大眾必須徹底查清該事件。政府發言人賽伯特(Steffen Seibe​​rt)也呼籲大眾全面澄清問題以及進行結構改革。下薩克森州是大眾第二大股東,擁有20%的大眾股份,同時屬於該集團領導層。賽伯特同時表示,目前沒有理由懷疑大眾董事會和監事會的構成。
Deutschland Bundesverkehrsminister Alexander Dobrindt - VW-Abgasskandal
德國交通部長多布林德(Alexander Dobrindt)11月4日在記者會上回答有關尾氣門的提問
下薩克森州長威爾(Stephan Weil)通過辦公室發言人對大眾新曝光的違規行為表示極大震驚和擔憂,並稱將更多去了解調查進程。在美國環保局本週已宣布大眾旗下大排量柴油車同樣安裝了操作尾氣測試數據的軟件,其中包括保時捷卡宴的消息之後,保時捷宣布暫停卡宴在北美地區的銷售。對於保時捷前總裁馬蒂亞斯·穆勒是不是擔任大眾總裁的正確人選的問題,下薩克森州發言表示現在討論該問題還為時過早。
交通部長多布林德指出,大眾必須在不對用戶造成負擔的情況下解決該問題,增加透明度。德國經濟部長加布里爾認為大眾承認二氧化碳排放值有問題表現出該公司的徹查決心。
在美國召回車輛
本週三,大眾在美國的子公司宣布因凸輪軸的問題在美召回91800輛車,其中包括2015年和2016年產的捷達、帕薩特、甲殼蟲、高爾夫汽油車。

DW.CO​​M

保時捷捲入大眾醜聞叫停卡宴銷售

再曝“尾氣門”大眾反駁指責願意合作

大眾尾氣門愈演愈烈卡宴也捲入

排廢造假 福斯未完全吐實

被爆自製多套軟體 已作弊7年

1019
【廖育琳╱綜合外電報導】德國福斯汽車今年9月中驚爆造假醜聞,其柴油車以「減效軟體」美化廢氣排放量,全球逾1100萬輛車受影響。前天再有爆料者稱,福斯製作了好幾套減效軟體,用於4種引擎,期間長達7年,犯案程度比其日前坦承使用的2套軟體還複雜且嚴重。




德國福斯汽車9月中爆發之排氣造假風波持續發酵。法新社

路透前天引述福斯內部人士與美方調查人員的爆料,做出上述報導。醜聞爆發至今,福斯股票市值已失血至少約9200億台幣,還面臨約1.3兆台幣賠償的集體訴訟官司。福斯日前宣布削減約340億台幣投資預算,還考慮裁汰臨時工來削減成本。
揭露這起醜聞的關鍵,竟是美國西維吉尼亞大學一個5人研究團隊。 

租不起雙B改測福斯

團隊負責人是45歲工程師卡德(Daniel Carder),他跟2名同事帶著2名研究生,在2012年底開始研究車輛排污,原想測試賓士和BMW的柴油車,但因研究經費約155萬台幣,租不起雙B名車,才改租福斯。他們沒想到車上會有作弊軟體,事後也很訝異自己的研究引發軒然大波。 

上路時污染不會過濾

卡德團隊的研究在前年5月發布,之後美國環保署介入,發現福斯在旗下柴油車中植入軟體,讓車輛能偵測到正在進行空污檢測,然後自動開啟所有的污染物過濾系統,以符合檢驗標準。但其柴油引擎在實際上路時,並不會完全開啟污染物過濾系統,因此排放的廢氣遠超過法定標準,其中會導致氣喘等呼吸道疾病的氮氧化物,更是超標達40倍。 

福斯醜聞事件簿

◎2013年 西維吉尼亞大學研究發現,福斯柴油車實際排污超標40倍,福斯召修稱已解決
◎2015/05 美國政府再度檢測福斯柴油車,發現仍超標
◎2015/09/18 美國政府公布福斯用造假軟體欺騙空污排放檢測,要求召修48.2萬輛車
◎2015/09/22 福斯宣布造假影響全球約1100萬輛車,坦承使用造假軟體
◎2015/10/14 福斯坦承旗下柴油車裝有第2套減效軟體
◎2015/10/15 福斯宣布召回歐洲850萬輛問題車,德國政府要求福斯「強制召回」仍在德國上路的240萬輛問題車。台灣福斯也宣布自主召回計劃,會在未來數周及數月間通知約1.8萬名車主
資料來源:《蘋果》資料室 




2015年09月29日06:07 AM

大眾醜聞與德國企業文化


德國企業之所以強大,很重要的一點就是其家族式地方性企業文化。但這一點是否也是個禍根呢?大眾汽車(Volkswagen)的麻煩與德國的企業風格有很大關係。在德國,企業往往是家族集團,它們一方面業務遍布全球,另一方面也帶有十足的地方色彩。
我們來看一下大眾在其汽車尾氣上造假、欺騙監管機構這件事。這聽起來不像是一家用精密尺子繪製草圖、用複雜計量器檢驗公差的世界一流企業謀劃出的方案,倒像是一家絕不允許離譜點子消亡(前提是這些點子出自足夠位高權重的人)的企業裡的菜鳥鼓搗出的方案。
德國是一個相信家族企業是其成功支柱的國家。在科隆、斯圖加特或弗賴堡周邊地區走走看看,你會發現成千上萬家這樣的企業。它們往往在挑戰技術的極限,花費很大力氣設計一些聽起來不像是產品、而更像是胡思亂想的東西:比如控製家庭能耗的智能儀表,或是能在一口鍋裡完成切菜、稱重和烹製整頓飯的機器。
但這些並非胡思亂想。它們是那些清楚德國以往的創新取得了不錯回報的冷靜商人所做的投資。人們認為,正是因為家族企業在投資時著眼長遠,這一切才成為可能。企業管理者押注時明白在自己有生之年不太可能收到回報,他們想的不是讓自己變得更富足,而是為子孫打下一片江山。
這些企業在家鄉紮根,依靠生活在這裡的人們,幫助所在城市建造公共游泳池、酒店或公園。作為回報,它們享有絕對的忠誠,並與百姓的生活建立起密切聯繫。遠道而來的訪客會發現,酒店經理能就當地的商業著裝要求提供建議(你可以不戴領帶——如今的董事會會議著商務休閒裝就行)。當企業主年滿60歲時,當地的樂隊會出來搞遊行演出,送上他們最美好的祝福。
但是,成功和忠誠也有弊端。這些企業往往由族長領導,他們控制著從重大投資決定到食堂供應的有機土豆的品牌等一切事務。他們是企業的統治者而非管理者,其中很多人不承認錯誤和失敗。
好也罷,歹也罷,大眾就是這樣一家企業。沒錯,文德恩(Martin Winterkorn)與大眾任何一位所有者都不是一個姓,但他在很多方面的行事作風就像是族長——在工作上投入很多時間、甚至在細枝末節的問題上也堅持自己的方式。大眾或許是世界最大的車企之一,但它同時也是德國國土上最後一個“公國”。
大眾總部位於沃爾夫斯堡,該市是由阿道夫•希特勒(Adolf Hitler)在大眾公司成立一年後創建的,大眾當時由保時捷(Porsche)和皮耶希(Piëch)家族管理,但歸德意志帝國(Reich)所有。二戰後,該家族和下薩克森州成為了主要股東。如今,外部投資者可以購買大眾的股票,但永遠不會擁有發言權。問題並不在於你是否是這份工作的合適人選,而是在於你是否來自正確的家族。
在《大眾汽車法》(Volkswagen-Gesetz,一部保障下薩克森州影響力的法律)的保護下,大眾公國在除“我們是汽車人”(we are car guys)之外沒有任何管理信條的情況下,闖了出去,打入了全球市場。
像昔日一樣,這個公國的統治者與他們統治的領土有著斬不斷的聯繫。大眾是當地的沃爾夫斯堡足球俱樂部(VFL Wolfsburg)的所有者,還經營著一家名為“汽車城”(Autostadt)的主題公園。它還是當地麗思卡爾頓(The Ritz-Carlton)酒店及其米其林(Michelin)三星餐廳的大客戶。
像昔日一樣,主事者也不會自願下台。要趕走他得靠鮮血和密謀。
本文作者為常駐柏林的商業記者
譯者/馬柯斯
VW and Germany's curse of provincial corporate culture - FT ...
companies are often led by patriarchs, who control everything from big investment decisions to the brand of organic potato served in the canteen. Rulers rather than managers, many do not accept mistakes and failure.For good or ill, Volkswagen is such a company. True, Martin Winterkorn does not share a surname with any of the owners, but in many ways he be­haved like a patriarch, working punishing hours and insisting on having his way even over tiny details. It might be one of the world’s largest car companies, but Volkswagen is also the last principality on German soil.
In depth

Volkswagen emissions scandal
VW emissions scandal'
The German carmaker is engulfed in the worst scandal in its 78-year history over findings it manipulated diesel emissions test data in the US and Europe to make its vehicles appear less polluting

Its home town, Wolfsburg, was founded by Adolf Hitler a year after the company itself, which was run by the Porsches and the Piëchs but owned by the Reich. After the second world war, the family and the federal state of Lower Saxony became the main shareholders. Outside investors can buy the shares these days, but they never have a say. The question is not whether you are the right person for the job. It is whether you come from the right stable.
Protected by the Volkswagen-Gesetz, a law that guarantees the influence of Lower Saxony, the principality of Volks­wagen has ventured out into the world with no management credo beyond “we are car guys”.
As in former times, the principality’s rulers are inseparable from the territory they rule. Volkswagen owns VFL Wolfsburg, the local soccer club, and runs a theme park called Autostadt. It is a big customer of the local Ritz-Carlton hotel and its restaurant, which has three Michelin stars.
And as in former times, the principal does not step down of his own accord. Displacing him takes blood and intrigue.
The writer is a business journalist based in Berlin


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福斯(Volkswagen)的柴油車排廢數據造假醜聞震驚全球,同時重挫了福斯股價跌逾 40%,公司執行長 Martin Winterkorn 也因此下台,未來福斯更可能面臨高達 180 億美元的罰款和刑事訴訟。所以究竟是誰最先發現了福斯的數據造假呢?答案便是 45 歲的工程師 Daniel Carder,以及他在美國西維吉尼亞大學的5人研究團隊。



根據《CNBC》報導,Daniel Carder 的研究團隊在洛杉磯、西雅圖等地區進行福斯汽車上路的廢氣排放檢測,意外發現福斯柴油車上路後的排廢數據高於美國監管機關檢測到的數值很多,這份報告的結果在 2013 年 3 月完成。由於數據相差過大,起初研究團隊還懷疑是自己的檢測錯誤,但這份報告後來也被美國環保署 (EPA) 和加州空氣資源局 (CARB) 證實正確無誤,才因此踢爆了福斯排廢數據造假的醜聞。

Daniel Carder 表示,他們一開始也懷疑自己檢測出來的數據,數據的差異非常大,有些車上路時的排廢量比檢測高出 15 到 35 倍,有些則高出 10 到 20 倍。Daniel Carder 對於近期全球才熱烈討論此事也感到訝異,因為這項調查結果早在一年半前就公諸於世,不過當時則遭福斯質疑可信度。

Daniel Carder 的研究團隊當時測試的車輛有福斯的 Passat 和 Jetta,以及 BMW X5。與福斯不同,BMW 在上路測驗中表現非常好,排廢數據符合或低於檢測標準。

西維吉尼亞大學本來就是空污排廢研究的先驅,15 年前便首先開發出了可以檢測車輛上路排廢數據的技術。Daniel Carder 的研究團隊中有研究教授、畢業學生和學校職員。對於發掘出福斯數據造假的真相,Daniel Carder 表示其實並沒有感到太興奮,他當然不想看到空污造成環境污染,但也沒有一定要證明福斯數據造假的誘因。





福斯汽車聞明的柴油引擎爆發世紀大醜聞…
一個大學的研究團隊可以搞垮全球最大的汽車集團,
西方工業傑出的技術在於忠於工藝細節,不造假是基督教文明的基本價值。可惜,自以為聰明的福斯汽車可能難以翻身了!
【西維吉尼亞大學的研究團隊認為,汽車廢氣的排放量會受到車速、路況、車主使用習慣等因素影響,但 Volkswagen 氮氧化物排放量卻始終超標 30-40 倍,不像其他測試的車行進一段時間後,廢氣排放量會逐漸降低、最終低於標準值。
一 頭霧水的研究團隊也把 Volkswagen 的「異常」,告知美國環保局與加州大氣資源局, Volkswagen 接二連三出包引起了美國官方的重視,進而展開追查。或許 ICCT 與西維吉尼亞大學的團隊當時都沒想到,簡單的檢測無意中卻挖掘到這幾年來汽車產業最大的醜聞。】



謝金河VW對德國造成無法彌補的重傷害!
這兩天德國股市暴跌,全球股市又出現了小股災,尤其是22日德國股市暴跌377.85,全球股市再度出現恐慌殺盤,禍首居然是汽車業模範生福斯汽車(Volkswagen)!
VW被査到在1100萬輛柴油車中加裝Cheating Devices,這種軟體可以規避廢氣排放檢測,汽車製造商隱瞞車輛排放數據,且蓄意造假,這是汽車業空前大醜聞。福斯已宣布在第三季提列73億美元費用,福斯股價首日大跌19.8%,連續兩個交易日下跌35%,福斯股價最慘跌到109.8歐元,如果從今年最高的269.25歐元起算,股價已重挫59.25%,福斯汽車市值最高一度達1485億歐元,如今只剰605億歐元。

褔斯股價重挫,德國股市也跟著大跌,福斯汽車對德國經濟已造成無法彌補的傷害。德國是嚴肅的民族,如今大汽車製造商居然也會作弊,這對德國製造業的傷害,實在無法用金錢來衡量。其次是全球汽車業陷入信任的危機中,大家會用更嚴格的標準來檢驗汽車廠的配備,福斯醜聞使消費者對汽車業的「信任」再度出現問題!這是全球產業最沈重的一課。


福斯排廢造假醜聞 令「德國製」蒙塵
作者:天下編輯部編譯 2015-09-23 BBC

汽車和環境,是德國最在意的兩件事情,也幾乎是德國的標誌。因此當德國人發現他們國家最大的汽車製造廠在這兩件事情上面竟然欺騙了他們,那種震驚的程度,就像英國人突然發現女王在馬術比賽中作弊一樣。



德國一家報紙指稱,福斯排廢造假,是「汽車工業歷史上最昂貴的愚蠢行為。」

說它愚蠢,是因為操縱排廢數據來增加銷售,只會被視為消費者願意花更高的價錢購買他們以為是比較綠色的車子,結果被福斯狠狠甩了他們兩巴掌。

說它昂貴,自從事件爆發。福斯的股價短短兩天已經跌掉超過三分之一,市值蒸發超過兩百億歐元。這還不算福斯可能會在美國面臨180億美元的罰款,以及因此而賠掉的商譽損失,和往後減少的銷量。

福斯在柴油車上造假,聽來尤其瘋刺。因為福斯向來標榜最具環保意識,其「清潔柴油車」以同時能夠做到「對環境更友善、馬力更強」為榮。結果美國超過五十萬輛的車主發現他們開的車原來排放的廢氣是美國規定的上限的40倍。

而福斯今天承認排廢不實的車子多達1100萬輛,全球都有。則毫無疑問的,這場風暴一定會跨出美國,燒向全球。

在德國,一輛汽車不僅僅只是裝上四個輪子的金屬盒子。在福斯的故鄉Wolfsburg的人,尤其清楚。

在Wolfburt,幾乎一半的人口是福斯的員工,在這城市裡,無論你看向哪一方,幾乎都可以看到福斯的廠房和福斯的旗幟在飄揚。拜福斯所賜。Wolfsburg是德國人均工資最高的地方,

德國汽車一直是德國人的驕傲,它代表了可靠、技術優良、工藝精湛。汽車甚至是德國經濟最強有力的支柱。汽車也是德國單項出口金額最高的產品。在德國,每七個德國人就有一個,他的工作直接和間接與汽車工業有關。





「德國製」一直是人們願意花比較高的錢購買、代表品質值得信賴的標誌。如果這個形象是經過操縱和造假而來,它對整個德國經濟的打擊,早晚會顯現。


The Economist
For Volkswagen, an $18 billion fine for fiddling emissions tests is not the only worry; investors have other things to be spooked about:http://econ.st/1LJbIUr



ON SEPTEMBER 21st, the share price of Volkswagen (VW), the world's largest carmaker by units produced, fell by 17% in just one day. Investors dumped the firm's...
ECON.ST

ft
Allegations over cheating on diesel vehicles’ emissions tests will in theory cost Volkswagen up to $18bn in fines. But the damage to VW’s brand — defined by perceived virtues such as trust, engineering excellence and fuel economy — is perhaps the most serious risk to the company.
Read more - Comment: VW emissions scandal is reality’s revengehttp://ft.trib.al/um1QJtY



Analysts say vehicle emissions probe by regulator could prompt...
FT.TRIB.AL
High quality global journalism requires investment. Please share this article with others using the link below, do not cut & paste the article. See our Ts&Cs and Copyright Policy for more detail. Email ftsales.support@ft.com to buy additional rights. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5a82376e-604f-11e5-9846-de406ccb37f2.html#ixzz3mSMfZIpNAllegations by a US regulator that Volkswagen breached environmental legislation by cheating in diesel vehicles’ emissions tests threaten to plunge the German carmaker into its biggest crisis in a generation.
“There is no way to put an optimistic spin on this — this is really serious,” says Max Warburton, analyst at Bernstein Research.

High quality global journalism requires investment. Please share this article with others using the link below, do not cut & paste the article. See our Ts&Cs and Copyright Policy for more detail. Email ftsales.support@ft.com to buy additional rights. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5a82376e-604f-11e5-9846-de406ccb37f2.html#ixzz3mSMmKBw7
VW’s shares fell 18.6 per cent on Monday — the third largest decline ever — as analysts struggled to put a price on the US scandal. Europe’s largest carmaker could face a multibillion-dollar fine, plus the cost of recalling and refitting 482,000 vehicles. There is also the possibility of lawsuits over the affair.
Questions are being raised about the future of Martin Winterkorn, VW chief executive, as investors seek clarity on whether the company’s problems are confined to the US, or could have occurred in other regions. The German government on Monday suggested it would investigate the matter.
Investors also want to know if other carmakers have been engaged in similar practices to VW — the share prices of several automobile manufacturers fell on Monday. There is a growing sense of distrust about carmakers’ statements on the performance of their cars, partly because some have been fined by regulators for misleading comments on fuel efficiency.
The US Environmental Protection Agency said on Friday that VW installed “defeat device” software on its diesel cars that meant they would activate emissions control systems for testing, but thereafter the vehicles could release nitrogen oxides at up to 40 times the permitted level.
Defeat devices are illegal in Europe and the US, and Germany’s other leading carmakers sought to distance themselves from the scandal. BMW and Daimler said the accusations made by the EPA did not apply to them, and their shares recovered some of earlier falls on Monday, although both stocks still closed down.
Perhaps the most serious risk to VW is damage to its brand — defined by perceived virtues such as trust, engineering excellence and fuel economy.
The investigation by the EPA represents the biggest scandal at VW since it emerged in 2005 that company cash was used to pay for prostitutes and holidays for labour representatives.
The allegations by the EPA would be damaging for any company but they could not have happened at a worse moment for VW.



The Wall Street Journal

Volkswagen shares were down 21% in morning trading Monday as a crisis over alleged cheating on U.S. emissions tests deepened.http://on.wsj.com/VWshares

Volkswagen 柴油引擎檢驗造假抓包 恐遭罰台幣 5857 億元!2015/09/19 16:55

文/記者蔡昆霖
根據美國媒體報導指出,美國環保署 Environmental Protection Agency,日前發現 Volkswagen 集團在旗下 42.8 萬輛柴油引擎車款的行車電腦中,值入一款特殊的程式,透過造假方式符合美國檢驗標準,可能面臨高達新台幣 5857 億元的罰款!
美國環保署日前發現Volkswagen集團在旗下42.8萬輛柴油引擎車款的行車電腦中,值入一款特殊的程式,透過造假方式通過美國檢驗標準。(圖片來源/AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)
Volkswagen 集團檢驗造假之所以被發現,主要乃是因為美國西維吉尼亞大學進行車輛排污研究時發現,Volkswagen 車款的排汙數值出現差異,而美國環保署 EPA 介入調查後也發現,Volkswagen 集團在旗下柴油車款值入特殊程式,車輛能夠偵測到目前正在進行空污檢驗,然後完全啟動所有的污染物過濾系統以符合檢驗標準。
Volkswagen集團在旗下柴油車款值入特殊程式,車輛能夠偵測到目前正在進行空污檢驗,然後完全啟動所有的污染物過濾系統以符合檢驗標準。(圖片來源/Felix Marquez, AP)
但事實上,一般柴油引擎車型在路上行駛時,並不會 100% 運作污染物過濾系統,因此事實上,Volkswagen 柴油引擎所排放的廢氣污染物遠超過法定標準,而其中會導致呼吸道疾病以及氣喘的氮氧化物 NOx,更是超過法定規範的 40 倍之譜!
(圖片來源/Volkswagen)
一般柴油引擎車型在路上行駛時,並不會100%運作污染物過濾系統,因此事實上,Volkswagen柴油引擎所排放的廢氣污染物遠超過法定標準。(圖片來源/Volkswagen)
這次 Volkswagen 集團檢驗造假事件,未來不僅需大規模召回,若是根據 Clean Air Act 空汙法以一輛車最高罰金 37500 美元來計算,美國環保署 EPA 最高可開罰 180 億美元,折合台幣約為 5857 億元。
根據Clean Air Act空汙法以一輛車最高罰金37500美元來計算,美國環保署EPA最高可開罰180億美元,折合台幣約為5857億元。(圖片來源/Audi)
目前問題車款包含 2009~2014 年的 Jetta、Beetle、Golf;2014~2015 年的 Passat;2009~2015 的 Audi A3,而問題車款均為 2.0 升四缸 TDI 柴油渦輪增壓引擎車型。

2016年4月15日 星期五

可運作定義 operational definition 和應用例:資本主義、空污觀測站

PM越大,越容易被人體呼吸道排除掉,所以通常PM越小的東西對人體危害就越大。「那有PM0.5嗎?當然也有!甚至也有PM0.1,這些都是經過吸呼道,直接進攻血管。」而柴油車所排放的廢氣幾乎都在PM0.5~PM0.1以下,毒性相當高。「你的呼吸道完全擋不住它,會從你的鼻子到咽部、喉嚨、支氣管、細支氣管到肺泡長驅直入,透過血液、在全身橫衝直撞。」
陳佩琪表示,過去家長只注意到空污會引起小孩子的過敏跟氣喘問題,但卻忽略「我以前遇過的小孩子病人,如果有過動、貧血,我一定會想到『鉛中毒』,雖然現在已經都是無鉛汽油,但若沒有用到高品質的無鉛汽油時,小孩子(體內)鉛濃度會很高,較易有過動、注意力不集中的現象,嚴重的話還會有貧血的症狀。」
PM2.5下降先別高興,因為台灣空氣是越來越毒
陳佩琪提到「政府有一個很詭異的地方,空污觀測站都是位在高樓大廈、或是校園頂樓,站在地面上比在高樓層的,不曉得吸到多少倍的空污,所以你不要看那個空污的指標,你實際上受到的暴露,應該是更多。」
「台灣是一個彈丸之地,『工廠』是一個很大的元凶。」陳佩琪認為台北比較幸運的是工廠較少,但像台中就有一個號稱全世界最大的燃煤的火力發電廠,而高雄更多,有中油中鋼、還有一些石化廠、造船廠,都是高耗能高污染的產業。
世界衛生組織在2013年將PM2.5列為人類的一級致癌物,陳佩琪解釋「PM2.5會吸附一些人類製造的二次污染源,這才是它毒害最大的地方!」包括硫氧化物、重金屬、戴奧辛、多環芳香、臭氧、一氧化碳、一氧化硫、二氧化硫......這些都是PM2.5帶的有毒物質。陳佩琪觀察到,因空污引起的過敏跟氣喘問題的小孩子越來越多,絕對沒有下降的趨勢,她提出警告「所以PM2.5下降大家不要覺得很高興,因為人為製造的東西越來越毒!」

近幾個月來,台北市長柯文哲因為路邊停車格全面收費、內湖塞車等一連串…
HEALTH.BUSINESSWEEKLY.COM.TW|作者:良醫健康網


***** 國民黨的「防磚條款」僅規定候選人民調必須超過三成,卻沒規範這三成要怎麼來。熟悉民調技術的人都知道,不僅互比、對比或者候選人自比會有不同的民調數據,就連問卷的設計、表態率(訪員是否追問立場?可以問幾次?)以及用什麼參數回歸、還原、推估都會造成不同的民調數據。換言之,要透過民調「技術」將洪秀柱做到三成以上支持度不是難事,要將洪秀柱的支持率壓到三成以下更是容易,這完全存乎一心。2015.5.30 

-----資本主義等等"XX主義"的說法,都是胡說的




關於本節目 資本主義是從哪裡來的?他是隨著我們社會的自然演化所導致的?或是被隨著政治與科技環境的改變而改變的論述所主導?...
PTS.ORG.TW




------


"對一概念或詞語之理解,須經由操作行為而顯明者,稱為「操作定義」。"這是教育部國語詞典對operational definition的不完善界說

作業【操業】操作


Wikipedia article "Operational definition". 有Deming的說法

An operational definition is a showing of something—such as a variable, term, or object—in terms of the specific process or set of validation tests used to determine its presence and quantity. Properties described in this manner must be publicly accessible so that persons other than the definer can independently measure or test for them at will. An operational definition is generally designed to model a conceptual definition.
For example, the weight of an object may be operationally defined in terms of the specific steps of putting an object on a weighing scale. The weight is whatever results from following the measurement procedure, which can in principle be repeated by anyone. It is intentionally not defined in terms of some intrinsic or private essence. The operational definition of weight is just the result of what happens when the defined procedure is followed. In other words, what's being defined is how to measure weight for any arbitrary object, and only incidentally the weight of a given object.
Operational definitions are also used to define system states in terms of a specific, publicly accessible process of preparation or validation testing, which is repeatable at will. For example, 100 degrees Celsius may be crudely defined by describing the process of heating water until it is observed to boil. An item like a brick, or even a photograph of a brick, may be defined in terms of how it can be made. Likewise, iron may be defined in terms of the results of testing or measuring it in particular ways.
One simple, every day illustration of an operational definition is defining a cake in terms of how it is prepared and baked (i.e., its recipe is an operational definition). Similarly, the saying, if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it must be some kind of duck, may be regarded as involving a sort of measurement process or set of tests (see Duck test).

Limitations

If a definition invokes an historical event, such as having weighed an object sometime in the past, it is no longer repeatable, so it fails to qualify as operational. Similarly, a specific brick cannot be operationally defined by the process of making it, because that process is historical. (But see the example of the constellation Virgo below for a discussion of how to avoid this difficulty.)
Operational definitions are inherently difficult — arguably, even impossible — to apply to mental entities, because these latter are generally understand to be accessible only to the individual who experiences them and are therefore not independently verifiable. According to this line of thinking, a person's mental image of a brick cannot be operationally defined because it cannot be measured from outside that person's mood. Philosopher Daniel Dennett has argued that first-person operationalism is possible and desirable, using the anthropological version of the scientific method to bring the mind fully into the third-person realm required by science. As part of the Multiple Drafts Model of consciousness, Dennett defines a process he calls heterophenomenology, by which the mental is defined operationally in terms of the observed behavior of the subject.

Usefulness

Despite the controversial philosophical origins of the concept, particularly its close association with logical positivism, operational definitions have undisputed practical applications. This is especially so in the social and medical sciences, where operational definitions of key terms are used to preserve the unambiguous empirical testability of hypothesis and theory. Operational definitions are also important in the physical sciences.

Relevance to philosophy

The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy says the following about Operationalism stored at http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/scientific-realism/ and written by Richard Boyd:
The idea originally arises in the operationalist philosophy of P. W. Bridgman and others. By 1914, Bridgman was dismayed by the abstraction and lack of clarity with which, he argued, many scientific concepts were expressed. Inspired by logical positivism and the phenomenalism of Ernst Mach, in 1914 he declared that the meaning of a theoretical term (or unobversable entity), such as electron density, lay in the operations, physical and mental, performed in its measurement. The goal was to eliminate all reference to theoretical entities by "rationally reconstructing" them in terms of the particular operations of laboratory procedures and experimentation.
Hence, the term electron density could be analyzed into a statement of the following form:
(*) The electron density of an object, O, is given by the value, x, if and only if P applied to O yields the value x,
where P stands for an instrument that scientists take as a procedure for measuring electron density.
Operationalism, defined in this way, was rejected even by the logical positivists, due to inherent problems: defining terms operationally necessarily implied the analytic necessity of the definition. The analyticity of operational definitions like (*) is essential to the project of rational reconstruction. Operationalism is not, for example, the idea that electron density is defined as whatever magnitude instruments of the sort P reliably measure. On that conception (*) would represent an empirical discovery about how to measure electron density, but -- since electrons are unobservables -- that's a realist conception not an empiricist one. What the project of rational reconstruction requires is that (*) be true purely as a matter of linguistic stipulation about how the term "electron density" is to be used.
Since (*) is supposed to be analytic, it's supposed to be unrevisable. There is supposed to be no such thing as discovering, about P, that some other instrument provides a more accurate value for electron density, or provides values for electron density under conditions where P doesn't function. Here again, thinking that there could be such an improvement in P with respect to electron density requires thinking of electron density as a real feature of the world which P (perhaps only approximately) measures. But that's the realist conception that operationalism is designed rationally to do away with!
In actual, and apparently reliable, scientific practice, changes in the instrumentation associated with theoretical terms are routine, and apparently crucial to the progress of science. According to a 'pure' operationalist conception, these sorts of modifications would not be methodologically acceptable, since each definition must be considered to identify a unique 'object' (or class of objects). In practice, however, an 'operationally defined' object is often taken to be that object which is determined by a constellation of different unique 'operational procedures.'
Most logical empiricists were not willing to accept the conclusion that operational definitions must be unique (in contradiction to 'established' scientific practice). So they felt compelled to reject operationalism. [[In the end, it reduces to a reductio ad absurdem, since each measuring instrument must itself be operationally defined, in infinite regress... But this was also a failure of the logical positivist approach generally.]]

However, this rejection of operationalism as a general project destined ultimately to define all experiential phenomena uniquely did not mean that operational definitions ceased to have any practical use or that they could not be applied in particular cases.

Relevance to science

Operational definitions are at their most controversial in the field of psychology, where intuitive concepts, such as intelligence need to be operationally defined before they become amenable to scientific investigation, for example, through processes such as IQ tests. Such definitions are used as a follow up to a conceptual definition, in which the specific concept is defined as a measurable occurrence. John Stuart Mill pointed out the dangers of believing that anything that could be given a name must refer to a thing and Stephen Jay Gould and others have criticized psychologists for doing just that. A committed operationalist would respond that speculation about the thing in itself, or noumenon, should be resisted as meaningless, and would comment only on phenomena using operationally defined terms and tables of operationally defined measurements.
A behaviorist psychologist might (operationally) define intelligence as that score obtained on a specific IQ test (e.g., the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale test) by a human subject. The theoretical underpinnings of the WAIS would be completely ignored. This WAIS measurement would only be useful to the extent it could be shown to be related to other operationally defined measurements, e.g., to the measured probability of graduation from university. [1]

Relevance to business

On October 15 1970, the West Gate Bridge in Melbourne, Australia collapsed, killing 35 construction workers. The subsequent enquiry found that the failure arose because engineers had specified the supply of a quantity of flat steel plate. The word flat in this context lacked an operational definition, so there was no test for accepting or rejecting a particular shipment or for controlling quality.
In his managerial and statistical writings, W. Edwards Deming placed great importance on the value of using operational definitions in all agreements in business. As he said:
"An operational definition is a procedure agreed upon for translation of a concept into measurement of some kind." - W. Edwards Deming
"There is no true value of any characteristic, state, or condition that is defined in terms of measurement or observation. Change of procedure for measurement (change of operational definition) or observation produces a new number." - W. Edwards Deming

Relevance to process

Operational, in a process context, also can denote a working method or a philosophy that focuses principally on cause and effect relationships (or stimulus/response, behavior, ...) of specific interest to a particular domain at a particular point in time. As a working method, it does not consider issues related to a domain that are more general, such as the ontological, etc.
The term can be used strictly within the realm of the interactions of humans with advanced computational systems. In this sense, an AI system cannot be entirely operational (this issue can be used to discuss strong versus weak AI) if learning is involved.
Given that one motive for the operational approach is stability, systems that relax the operational factor can be problematic, for several reasons, as the operational is a means to manage complexity. There will be differences in the nature of the operational as it pertains to degrees along the end-user computing axis.
For instance, a Knowledge Based Engineering system can enhance its operational aspect and thereby its stability through more involvement by the SME, of course, thereby opening up issues of limits that are related to being human, in the sense that, many times, computational results have to be taken at face value due to several factors (hence the Duck test's necessity arises) that even an expert cannot overcome. The end proof may be the final results (reasonable facsimile by simulation or artifact, working design, etc.) that are not guaranteed to be repeatable, may have been costly to attain (time and money), and so forth.
Many domains, with a numerics focus, use limits logic to overcome the Duck test necessity with varying degrees of success. Complex situations may require logic to be more non-monotonic than not raising concerns related to the qualification, frame, and ramification problems.

Examples


Temperature

The thermodynamic definition of temperature, due to Nicolas Léonard Sadi Carnot, refers to heat "flowing" between "infinite reservoirs". This is all highly abstract and unsuited for the day-to-day world of science and trade. In order to make the idea concrete, temperature is defined in terms of operations with the gas thermometer. However, these are sophisticated and delicate instruments, only adapted to the national standardization laboratory.
For day-to-day use, the International Practical Temperature Scale (IPTS) is used, defining temperature in terms of the electrical resistance of a thermistor, with specified construction, calibrated against operationally defined fixed points.

Electric current

Electric current is defined in terms of the force between two infinite parallel conductors, separated by a specified distance. This definition is too abstract for practical measurement, so a device known as a current balance is used to define the ampere operationally.

Mechanical hardness

Unlike temperature and electric current, there is no abstract physical concept of the hardness of a material. It is a slightly vague, subjective idea, somewhat like the idea of intelligence. In fact, it leads to three more specific ideas:
  1. Scratch hardness measured on Mohs' scale;
  2. Indentation hardness; and
  3. Rebound, or dynamic, hardness measured with a Shore scleroscope.
Of these, indentation hardness itself leads to many operational definitions, the most important of which are:
  1. Brinell hardness test—using a 10 mm steel ball;
  2. Vickers hardness test—using a pyramidal diamond indenter; and
  3. Rockwell hardness test—using a diamond cone indenter.
In all these, a process is defined for loading the indenter, measuring the resulting indentation and calculating a hardness number. Each of these three sequences of measurement operations produces numbers that are consistent with our subjective idea of hardness. The harder the material to our informal perception, the greater the number it will achieve on our respective hardness scales. Furthermore, experimental results obtained using these measurement methods has shown that the hardness number can be used to predict the stress required to permanently deform steel, a characteristic that fits in well with our idea of resistance to permanent deformation. However, there is not always a simple relationship between the various hardness scales. Vickers and Rockwell hardness numbers exhibit qualitatively different behaviour when used to describe some materials and phenomena.

The constellation Virgo

The constellation Virgo is a specific constellation of stars in the sky, hence the process of forming Virgo cannot be an operational definition, since it is historical and not repeatable. Nevertheless, the process whereby we locate Virgo in the sky is repeatable, so in this way, Virgo is operatonally defined. In fact, Virgo can have any number of definitions (although we can never prove that we are talking about the same Virgo), and any number may be operational.

Duck typing

In advanced modeling, with the requisite computational support such as KBE, mappings must be maintained between a real-world object, its abstracted counterparts as defined by the domain and its experts, and the computer models. Mismatches between domain models and their computational mirrors can raise issues that are apropos to this topic. Techniques that allow the flexible modeling required for many hard problems must resolve issues of identity, type, etc. which then lead to methods, such as Duck typing.

Conceptual vs operational definition

Conceptual definition Operational definition
Weight: a measurement of gravitational force acting on an object a result of measurement of an object on a Newton spring scale

References

  • Ballantyne, Paul F. History and Theory of Psychology Course, in Langfeld, H.S. (1945) Introduction to the Symposium on Operationism. Psyc. Rev. 32, 241-243.[2]
  • Bohm, D. (1996). On dialog. N.Y.: Routledge.
  • Boyd, Richard. On the Current Status of the Issue of Scientific Realism in Erkenntnis. 19: 45-90.
  • Bridgman, P. W. The way things are. Cambridge: Harvard University Press. (1959)
  • Carnap, R. The Elimination of Metaphysics Through Logical Analysis of Language in Ayer, A.J. 1959.
  • Churchland, Patricia, Neurophilosophy— Toward a unified science of the mind/brain, MIT Press (1986).
  • Churchland, Paul., A Neurocomputational Perspective— The Nature of Mind and the Structure of Science, MIT Press (1989).
  • Dennett, Daniel C. Consciousness Explained, Little, Brown & Co.. 1992.
  • Depraz, N. (1999). "The phenomenological reduction as praxis." Journal of Consciousness Studies, 6(2-3), 95-110.
  • Hardcastle, G. L. (1995). "S.S. Stevens and the origins of operationism." Philosophy of Science, 62, 404-424.
  • Hermans, H. J. M. (1996). "Voicing the self: from information processing to dialogical interchange." Psychological Bulletin, 119(1), 31-50.
  • Hyman, Bronwen, U of Toronto, and Shephard, Alfred H., U of Manitoba, "Zeitgeist: The Development of an Operational Definition", The Journal of Mind and Behavior, 1(2), pps. 227-246 (1980)
  • Leahy, Thomas H., Virginia Commonwealth U, The Myth of Operationism, ibid, pps. 127-144 (1980)
  • Ribes-Inesta, Emilio "What Is Defined In Operational Definitions? The Case Of Operant Psychology," Behavior and Philosophy, 2003.[3]
  • Roepstorff, A. & Jack, A. (2003). "Editorial introduction, Special Issue: Trusting the Subject? (Part 1)." Journal of Consciousness Studies, 10(9-10), v-xx.
  • Roepstorff, A. & Jack, A. (2004). "Trust or Interaction? Editorial introduction, Special Issue: Trusting the Subject? (Part 2)." Journal of Consciousness Studies, 11(7-8), v-xxii.
  • Stevens, S. S. Operationism and logical positivism, in M. H. Marx (Ed.), Theories in contemporary psychology (pp. 47-76). New York: MacMillan. (1963)
  • Thomson — Waddsworth, eds., Learning Psychology: Operational Definitions Research Methods Workshops[4]

See also



go a long way towards doing sth


Percey Bridgman's operationalism also went a long way toward undermining the simplistic naive realism of earlier science:
The Logic of Modern Physics,

應用例

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