new economics...新經濟學與台灣戴明圈: The New Economics and A Taiwanese Deming Circle

「華人戴明學院」是戴明哲學的學習共同體 ,致力於淵博型智識系統的研究、推廣和運用。 The purpose of this blog is to advance the ideas and ideals of W. Edwards Deming.

2015年4月15日 星期三



Dodging the data

The car brand most likely to kill occupants of other cars in an accident.
Gregory Nemec

Gregory Nemec

View full image

Dodge vehicles carry aggressive names: Challenger. Charger. Ram. It’s perhaps no coincidence, says Law School professor Ian Ayres ’81, ’86JD, that on safety, Dodge has one of the most aggressive records in the industry. By “aggressive,” he means having the “propensity to kill or injure someone in another vehicle.”
When a Dodge crashes, people in the other vehicle are 2.2 times more likely to die than those in the Dodge, Ayres and law professor Amy Kapczynski ’03JD found in an analysis of US auto fatalities. In other words, Ayres says in an interview, “for every life inside the car that’s being saved, relative to the median, their cars are killing two people outside the car.” That’s the highest ratio of external to internal fatalities of any carmaker. (Ayres and Kapczynski calculated the ratios for their article “Innovation Sticks,” to be published in December in the University of Chicago Law Review.)
A spokesman for FCA, Dodge’s manufacturer, responds: “The company takes seriously its commitment to public safety and designs its vehicles accordingly. All vehicles produced by FCA US LLC meet or exceed applicable safety standards.”
Having a fleet that’s safer than average inside but more dangerous outside is “a fairly unusual trait” among auto companies, Ayres says, and it “raises interesting ethical questions, not just for Dodge and other laggard manufacturers but for consumers.” Academic literature on innovation “focuses almost exclusively on which type of carrot is the best” incentive, but “it occurred to us that you could have sticks”—financial penalties for low performers. (Other auto-related areas do: speed limits and fuel-efficiency standards, for example.) Fines for persistently high fatality averages would raise a new question for auto companies: “There are tons of other cars that are doing better than yours. Are there measures you could take to bring your fatality rate down?”



China’s First Homegrown Commercial Jet: Clear Skies Ahead?

Apr 09, 2015

On December 30, 2014, Li Jia Xiang, chief of the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC), flew on a regional jet liner from Shanghai Pudong to Beijing. But this journey was no ordinary flight.
After it safely landed in Beijing Airport, the jetliner, an ARJ21, had finally earned its Type Certificate from CAAC, which meant the aircraft model had satisfied its basic safety requirements and could enter China’s civil aviation market. It took the ARJ21 — the first commercially available aircraft ever designed in China — six long years to get this entry ticket. 
Luo Ronghuai, deputy general manager of the Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC) and the chief of the ARJ21 Project, has been deeply involved in the whole process — from design and R&D through manufacturing to flight testing.

What challenges has ARJ21 gone through? Are these made-in-China aircraft safe enough? Who will purchase them? What is the status of China’s second foray into aircraft design, the larger C919? And what impact have these domestically designed and built aircraft on the upstream and downstream industry value chain? China Knowledge@Wharton talked with Luo Ronghuai recently about these questions and others.
Below is an edited version of the interview.
China Knowledge@Wharton: Let’s talk first about ARJ21 in detail. What does the plane look like, and what are the aircraft it will be competing with primarily in the global market?
Luo Rong Huai: The ARJ21 jet is a 70- to 90-seat, short-to-medium range, turbofan powered regional aircraft. It’s the first civil aircraft to which China owns independent intellectual property rights, and it’s also the first time the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration has agreed to accept and approve aircraft applications for flight certification based on the reviews of the Civil Aviation Administration of China.
Its major competition in the world will be [the Embraer] ERJ175 of Brazil and [the Sukhoi Superjet 100] SSJ from Russia, both regional aircraft with 70 to 110 seats.
“Since it was the first time China had designed an aircraft, we had no experience, so there were many experiments. We had to try again and again in order to get the results we wanted.”
China Knowledge@Wharton: The ARJ21 jet liner accomplished its first flight in November 2008. Why did take so long — six years — to obtain its certification?
Luo: Since it was the first time China had designed an aircraft, we had no experience, so there were many experiments. We had to try again and again in order to get the results we wanted. After the ARJ21’s first flight in 2008, we originally anticipated it would take at most four years to get the aircraft certified – but then the real challenges began emerging, many more of them than we had been able to imagine. Twitter 
It took us a long time to study, explore and learn what we needed to know to meet all those certification requirements. For example, there’s an experiment called the “Natural Icing Flight Test” which originally was planned to take place in Xinjiang province [the region in the Northwest corner of China]. However, after flying the aircraft there repeatedly over a period of four years, we had still only completed part of that testing regimen. Finally, we had to look for suitable weather conditions in North America instead.
In order to finish all the flight tests of the ARJ21, for six years, we took the aircraft to the most extreme ends of China: The furthest north, the deepest south, the coldest, the hottest, the windiest and the most humid places in the country. And, we went to the U.S. and Canada to find extremely icy environments – the plan flew all around the Northern Hemisphere.
In addition to the enormous amount of time and resources we spent on overcoming technical barriers, we also gradually built up, for the first time, a team of testing and certification staff. But we’re still small. In Seattle, Boeing has a team of more than 250 people that work on flight test certification. Our Shanghai certification center has only 50 to 60 people, and the CAAC has another 30 to 40 people.
China Knowledge@Wharton: What are these flight tests? Can you give some examples?
Luo: The major target of flight tests is to look at the most dangerous potential moments of the flight, and see how your aircraft performs — for example, a stall, passing through a 27-knot crosswind, or an engine failure, to name a few. Test pilots have to proactively seek out these low-probability events, which only happen once in tens of thousands of hours of flying time.
For example, there’s the “one engine inoperative” test, which refers, unsurprisingly, to a situation when one of the plane’s two engines isn’t working. So, you have to have test pilots shut down an engine in mid-flight to find out if the plane can be flown acceptably in that condition. But that’s only one of many, and these mandatory experiments take thousands of test flights. Only when you have tried to fly a plane under every dangerous condition you could anticipate, and proved that it can handle them, can the aircraft be considered safe to sell and fly commercially.
The type certification we took the ARJ21 through involved testing thousands of individual items. In the end, it added up to 3,418 reports and 300,000 pages, which, if you stacked them up, would be 30 meters high.
Although it was a long process, we have accumulated a lot of valuable experience for future aircraft tests. Having gone through this will make it easier and more efficient when we have to start putting our next aircraft, the large C919, through all these experiments in near future.
“The ARJ21 is the first regional aircraft China has produced based on international standards, and that it has been certified is a milestone for China’s aviation industry.”
China Knowledge@Wharton: What does this certification mean? What impact will it have for Chinese-made planes in future?
Luo: The ARJ21 is the first regional aircraft China has produced based on international standards, and that it has been certified is a milestone for China’s aviation industry. It demonstrates that we’ve successful developed our regional aircraft manufacturing technology.
The global aviation community recognizes the maturity of a country’s aviation industry by its ability to produce new aircraft that can be certified flightworthy. In the ARJ21-700 project, we have accomplished the entire process — from design to manufacturing, experimentation to flight tests. We mastered a bunch of new technology, new materials, new processes, and accumulated a lot of project-management experience, which has also laid the groundwork for future big aircraft projects like the C919.
China Knowledge@Wharton: Does this certification mean the plane can be delivered right away? Can the aircraft be exported to global markets like Europe and U.S. now?
Luo: Certification and delivery are two very different things. Every plane to be delivered to an airline has to obtain its own airworthiness certificate from the CAAC. At present, the CAAC is checking the first ARJ21-700 plane for this certificate. And the CAAC still has to audit and approve the quality-assurance system, the flight support system, and the continuous airworthiness program. Once all these checks have been done, the first ARJ21-700 plane will be delivered to Chengdu Airline [one of China’s domestic airlines] and formally start to fly, which we anticipate will happen this year.
For any airplane model to be exported to Europe and the U.S., it has to get the approval from local aviation authorities. For example, the FAA has to approve your plane if you want to sell it or fly it in the U.S. While we were working to get the ARJ21 its CAAC certification in China, the FAA conducted a shadow audit, which was mainly to examine the certification ability and methodology of the CAAC.
In that shadow audit, FAA selectively examined some items, like the natural icing flight test, the static original equipment manufacturer test, the maximum brake energy test, VMU test, etc., and sent staff to follow and examine the whole process of test basics, test guideline, methodologies, experiments, equipments and the result. After the ARJ21 got certification in China, the shadow certification also finished, and they will start another audit on recognition.
However, in some countries in Southeast Asia and Africa, certifications issued by CAAC are recognized locally, which means that Chinese-made and certified aircraft can fly in those countries.
China Knowledge@Wharton: After certification, what will you have to do next in terms of commercial efforts? And how long do you expect it will to recoup the high costs invested in this project?
Luo: Aircraft production is an industry with massive investment, high risks, and slow returns. It’s a long journey from experiments in labs to formally producing a plane, and after that to win a piece of the aircraft market. And it can take years beyond to achieve commercial success.
At present, we’ve received 308 orders for the ARJ21. After the delivery of the first one, COMAC hopes to quickly reach an annual output of 15 aircraft, and, longer term, to increase that to 50 planes a year.
For the ARJ21, we set three goals: The first one was technical success, which was met when we obtained type certification. The second one was market success: producing the aircraft with cost controls, commercial value and earning brand recognition in the market — and then winning a certain market share. The third one was commercial success: selling aircraft that are competitive in the marketplace, and that can bring economic benefits for airline companies. At this moment, we have a long way to go before we hit goals two and three.
China Knowledge@Wharton: You mentioned that it takes a great deal of money to build a new aircraft, and that the returns are slow. Given that, why should China still try to get into this industry? Also, what percentage of this project involves independently developed Chinese technology?
“Aircraft production is an industry with massive investment, high risks, and slow returns. It’s a long journey from experiments in labs to formally producing a plane, and after that to win a piece of the aircraft market.”
Luo: To make our own aircraft will activate many upstream and downstream industries in areas such as materials production and high-end equipment manufacturing. We can also gradually build up a base of local suppliers in related industries, which is suitable in the context of the current stage of China’s aviation market.
Regarding independent technology, for the ARJ21, our primary suppliers include four domestic ones and 19 global companies. We also have nearly 100 secondary suppliers in China. Global airplane manufacturers like Boeing don’t design engines, and they don’t make rivets either; they purchase parts from many suppliers instead. Boeing has nearly 10,000 suppliers globally for its parts. For our planes, COMAC is the general designer, and we integrate the best technology available globally into them.
However, or next plane, the large aircraft C919, which is still in development, will have a higher level of domestic involvement. There are 36 Chinese research institutions taking part in the project, as well as more than 200 Chinese companies, including 16 material suppliers and 54 potential parts suppliers. Meanwhile, 16 global suppliers, among them GE, Honeywell and CFM, have built joint ventures with domestic companies on avionics, flight controls and other airborne systems.
China Knowledge@Wharton: Can you talk a little more about the C919 and how it’s progressing?
Luo: The C919 is a 150-seat, single-channel, narrow-body aircraft, which will compete with the Boeing 737 and the Airbus 320. This is a class of aircraft that’s most in demand in China and the global civil aviation market.
So far, the C919 has finished the project demonstration phase, the demonstration of feasibilityand predevelopment, and it’s now moving into the engineering development stage. Assembly has begun on the first craft, and it’s expected that we will conduct its first flight by the end of 2015. Then, we will move into the flight-test certification process.
China’s major airlines, including China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, Hainan Airlines and some aircraft leasing companies have already ordered C919s. Huaxia Financing Leasing Co. has just signed a contract with us to purchase 20 C919s, which has boosted our client list up to 18 companies, and 450 total orders for the aircraft.

新書/ 致謝 (2010-201)

他(許國森先生)從台北某處跑來買它,我當然不能有捨不得賣的想法。他退休,買2本書送一位銀行界高升的朋友。他說,我們的書他都有,近20年前買的...... 2015.4.15

        王金秋總經理 (華信資訊開發公司

今天很榮幸與溫肇東學長(國立政治大學科技管理與智慧財產研究所教授)聚會數小時。我跟他說,1973級的IE (工業工程)是我的英雄。他送我新書:溫肇東:左派商學院:以人為本,勇於創新求異 Business As If People Matter...(天下文化),並說《創新的機緣與流變》很快就要問市(遠流)


「Yes Sir !」

推薦新書 2008-2010 四本

系統與變異: 淵博知識與理想設計法 (2010)

 轉型:統計品管可靠性與轉型的新經濟學The Trilogy of the New Economics of Dr. Deming

《 戴明博士文選: 統計品管到淵博知識》The Essential Deming



致謝 (2011)鍾漢清

2010年的陳勝年老師紀念演講會,承蒙東海大學EMBA執行長王凱立老師/助理王凌莉小姐 (Elisa) 的行政支援/ 第12屆EMBA的學生代表的接待,沈金標老友的招待和推薦,也謝謝 王本正教授的導言
王秋金先生 蘇錦坤先生熊維強先生 沈金標先生
許文雄/許達然等歷史系老師的設宴招待 陳永松先生的參與

7月10日雅集/ 新書座談貓先生的女友和貓小姐的 男友
茶與詩 蘇錦坤/ 安全與風險 張慶麟/熊維強/Lisa夫婦/胡慧玲女士 /唐香燕-陳忠信婦夫/ 劉玉燕/林公孚 等等親友參與

11月6日 (周六)讀書會: 帶小狗的女士:契訶夫小說新選新譯

東海的人生饗宴 -by Ken Su


左至右 王秋金 鍾漢清 熊維強

晚宴上,前排 左至右 鍾漢清 許文雄/許達然 陳永松
後排 左至右 蘇錦坤 沈金標 王秋金 王本正

致謝 (2010)

2010年的印書費用,特別謝謝和誠鞋業股份有限公司的總裁林文智 (Mark Lin) 先生和徐歷昌 (David Hsu) 先生。
本書的內容,我曾經在台南的宏遠紡織公司、寶成工業公司 (彰化、東莞、越南和印尼)、和誠鞋業 (員林、泉州)、新竹的台楊科技、台灣電電工會TEMMA孫景莉主任提供給昆山講課機會 (感謝劉仲庸先生介紹)。再次向這些企業和組織的主管說聲謝謝。
我利用blog上的「謝謝 - Thanks」欄將買書的朋友大名寫上;最最謝謝你們的情義;特別感謝新竹芎林鄉的「太空梭公司」的知遇。這幾年來徐歷昌先生始終大力支持我們,包括本書的校改。感謝 (財團法人) 人文促進教育基金會的部分捐贈。感謝真理大學和官生平老師夫婦以及與我們分享心得諸多朋友 ── 官生平老師夫婦與我們企劃過「系統與變異思考之群英會」(Purposeful Interactions : Variations from a Theme by Dr. Deming)
謝謝William Scherkenbach先生 (本書或簡稱為Bill) 的賜序。他從2006年起與我們交往密切。光寶公司贊助他來主持2008年的「東海大學戴明學者講座」 ;王金秋總經理 (華信資訊開發公司) 和助理不辭辛勞,將Bill的英文演說聽寫出來。2009Bill還將戴明博士諸書各章訓 (motto) 送我。
英國的Kerridge父女 (David & Sarah Kerridge) 的許多嚴密的論文,本書收入「複雜之管理[2]。法國Jean-Marie Gogue多次與我們討論。他們在過去十幾年一直熱情地幫助我們。也要美國的Fordham大學的Joyce Orsini教授近年來的通信。
謝謝從1980年代起協助鍾漢清先生推進、傳播「新經濟學:產官學醫農 一體適用」的朋友們︰熊維強夫婦、林世彬先生、徐歷昌先生、郭展銓先生等。今年郭展銓先生寫出他最擅長的於螺絲業。從2008年起,徐歷昌先生都在出版經費上幫助我們,今年他在百忙之中還通知我第六版的Juran’s Quality Handbook似乎快發行了。簡英哲博士、郭展銓先生、熊維強先生等人,都義務協助2009年的戴明紀念研討會。
2010年的紀念演講會,承蒙沈金標先生向東海大學管理學院黃開義院長和EMBA執行長王凱立老師推薦,也謝謝助理王凌莉小姐 (Elisa) 的行政支援。2008年和2009年的東海講座的許多事務和協調工作,包括2009年演講的錄影和內容騰寫,都是東海大學工業工程暨經營資訊系所鄭玉玲女士的協調,謝謝她、教授群 (劉仁傑教授主持演講)、該系所的研究生和校外朋友的參與。感謝許文雄教授、羅時瑋教授 (數月之後他告訴我B. Keeney的書《變的美學》)、李金台老師、陳永松先生「共話大肚山上的許多往事」。
我們舉辦過紀念Russell L. Ackoff 的討論會 (200911),在此特別感謝戴久永教授、陳寬仁教授 (趁此機會特別恭賀他明年80大壽)、熊維強夫婦、林世彬先生、官生平老師夫婦等三位真理大學老師、王治瀚博士、劉健雄先生的參與。我們也舉辦過兩次讀書會:() Peter Gay著《現代主義》討論會:陳忠信先生、胡慧玲女士、熊維強夫婦、梁永安先生 (譯者。姑且用一歪聯賀之;譯業百發半生勝; 妻女十載半場贏。) 等;() 張華先生譯著的《跌入兔子洞:愛麗絲夢遊奇境》:鍾漢清、蘇錦坤、許達然、陳忠信 (後兩者激發我撰本書第二講中的「談董事會領導和公司 (組織) 治理」一節)、陳巨擘先生、川瀨健一先生(特別恭賀他花八年功夫編成的新書出版: 《植民地 台灣上映過的電影,1899-1945》日本橿原:東洋思想研究所,2010)、名譯家梁永安先生
2010年,有些老朋友重聚,最是喜樂:最高興的是,電子所的同事蘇錦坤先生與我重新連絡上,我們共遊台北縣的滿月圓等勝地,他又送我一些佛典與語言學、漢語、台語之書。蘇先生後來與Ken Chang 一起參加台北Peter Scholtes 逝世紀念研討會(2009)
東海大學工業工程第1975年級聚會 (感謝伍庭輝先生請客並贈書),我還與顧問博士夫婦同遊宜蘭,去宜蘭大學找張蓓蔕副教授 (更感謝東華大學和宜蘭大學的朋友、成大的許渭州、鍾鴻美夫婦)
「從來佳茗比佳人,何日故友尋故事。」:特別感謝摯友洪信佳醫師的招待,201056日他的第174趟加里山之旅。我們重回怡香茶園 (去年將茶園寫成茶圓,老板說,財進,好事),引進蘇錦坤 (Ken Su) 先生和家人。這次訪客題字由Ken的一首舊對聯應景。我去年題:「懂得生命與生活」,今年回家路上想起該寫:「友情千千萬萬種,茶心時時刻刻新。」隔天讀薩孟武先生隨筆,他說七言是四三格式,所以改成「千千萬萬友情種,時時刻刻茶心新。」後又改成「千千萬萬種友情,時時刻刻新茶心。」Ken的新聯也有許多新稿。結論是:方塊字實在學問大。我還請他有機會向我們介紹他在Acer 集團當副總的海內外經驗談……
寶誠工業公司的陳先生 (Willey) 告訴我許多製鞋業的前沿的開發製程故事。我曾與David Hung 律師拜訪過 (依時間先後序):東海大學台北校友會、陳文成基金會、國際特赦組織、廢除死刑推動連盟、波若威 (Broadwave) 公司的董事長吳國精 (K. J. Wu) 先生、工業技術研究院劉仲庸先生、故鄉新媒體公司;「高雄市第一社區大學」、「原住民部落大學」等三所之主任陳巨擘先生。我曾與日本朋友川瀨先生拜訪過「台灣大學出版中心」;我參加過兩次「台灣大學統計教學中心」的統計教學研討會。江日新老師帶我們夫婦訪問陽明山平等里的名勝和孟祥森先生故居等。

[1] 王鼎鈞《昨日的雲》,自印,1992,頁4
[2] 本文曾刊登於《戴明國際交流暨評論》月刊,第一卷第六期,2001


M001 第四代管理 Brian Joiner 鍾漢清 380
M003 戴明修練I W. W. Scherkenbach 鍾漢清 350
M004 戴明修練II W. W. Scherkenbach 鍾漢清 450
M005 戴明博士四日談 Latzko& Saunderch 陳健邦 350
M014 戴明文選 W. Edwards Deming 鍾漢清 500
M008 熱愛品質 P. Crosby 彭淮棟 350